Market Pulse · September 19, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment today registers a NEUTRAL stance, supported by a score of 10, indicating a delicate balance of forces. The Sahm Rule remains ‘Safe’ at -0.07, signaling no immediate recessionary concerns, while the 10y-2y yield curve has narrowed to 0.25, suggesting moderating long-term growth expectations. The 10y-3m curve holds at a ‘Normal’ 0.87, reinforcing this perspective, though elevated CPI at 3.7% and a ‘Neutral’ Fed Funds rate of 3.63% continue to point to ongoing inflationary pressures and a watchful central bank. The Fear & Greed Index at 56 (‘Greed’) and a ‘Neutral’ DXY at 100.2, coupled with ‘Healthy’ unemployment at 4.1%, further contribute to the mixed signal, reflecting a market that is neither fully embracing risk nor retreating.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, as represented by the S&P 500, are currently navigating a SIDEWAYS market phase with a trend strength classified as ‘Sideways’ (ADX 12.3), and are trading just below their 20-day moving average. In contrast, Bitcoin exhibits a strong BULL market phase with a ‘Strong BULL’ trend strength (ADX 40.7) and is trading comfortably above its 20-day moving average. The VIX remains at a ‘Low’ 14.81, down 4.1%, implying a subdued near-term volatility expectation for the broader market, even as crypto assets exhibit significant upward momentum.

SECTOR TRENDS

Today’s sector rotation analysis points towards an environment favoring economic expansion, with Technology, Energy, and Healthcare at the forefront of positive scores. Technology leads significantly with a score of 77.1, aligning with its role as a growth engine, while Energy shows moderate strength. Notably, the bottom three sectors – Industrials, Real Estate, and Utilities – are experiencing significant outflows and negative scores, indicating a defensive posture and a lack of broad-based cyclical strength within the equity market. This divergence suggests a market where growth-oriented technology is outperforming traditional defensive and cyclical plays.