Market Pulse · July 23, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment today registers a ‘RISK-ON’ stance with a score of 30, signaling a preference for higher-yielding assets. Underlying indicators support this, with the Sahm Rule at a ‘Safe’ 0.07, suggesting no immediate recessionary concerns. The yield curves, both 10y-2y at 0.36 and 10y-3m at 0.78, are in a ‘Normal’ positive configuration, generally conducive to economic expansion. Despite ‘Elevated’ year-over-year CPI at 3.7%, the Fed Funds Rate remains ‘Neutral’ at 3.63%, implying a steady monetary policy footing for now. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 33 in ‘Fear’, which, paradoxically within a ‘RISK-ON’ environment, suggests room for sentiment improvement, while the ‘Neutral’ DXY and ‘Healthy’ unemployment rate at 4.2% further bolster this positive outlook.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, represented by the S&P 500, are currently in a ‘BULL’ trend, though the ADX of 12.1 indicates a ‘Weak BULL’ trend strength, suggesting limited conviction. The index is trading above its 20-day moving average (7498.96 vs. 7484.66), a positive short-term signal. Bitcoin also exhibits a ‘BULL’ phase with a similar ‘Weak BULL’ trend strength (ADX 19.0) and is trading above its 20-day MA (66009.29 vs. 64021.96). The VIX is at a ‘Normal’ level of 16.64, down 2.4%, which implies subdued near-term volatility expectations, aligning with the generally stable market backdrop across asset classes, although the US equity market’s overall score indicates a neutral stance in the summary.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation is currently characterized by a ‘Recovery’ theme, with Financials, Energy, and Industrials showing strength, as indicated by our UQ AI Engine. The leading sectors are Energy (score 87.4), Real Estate (score 61.7), and Consumer Staples (score 61.6), suggesting investors are favoring defensive and value-oriented plays amidst the current economic signals. Conversely, Technology (score -64.3), Materials (score -60.2), and Consumer Discretionary (score -69.5) are the bottom three performers, indicating a rotation away from growth and cyclical sectors. This divergence highlights a market seeking stability and tangible assets over speculative growth, which investors should consider when constructing portfolios.