Market Pulse · September 30, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment is firmly in a RISK-ON stance, supported by a solid score of 30 and encouraging underlying indicators. The Sahm Rule remains ‘Safe’ at -0.07, suggesting no immediate recessionary concerns, while both the 10y-2y and 10y-3m yield curves are ‘Normal’, indicating healthy market expectations. Despite ‘Elevated’ CPI at 3.7%, the ‘Neutral’ Fed funds rate and ‘Healthy’ unemployment at 4.1% paint a picture of an economy that can absorb current inflation levels. The ‘Balanced’ Fear & Greed Index at 73 and ‘Neutral’ DXY further reinforce a conducive backdrop for risk assets.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, specifically the S&P 500, are exhibiting a ‘Weak BULL’ trend phase, characterized by a slightly positive position above the 20-day moving average and a low ADX of 9.9, suggesting a nascent but unconvincing upward move. Conversely, Bitcoin is demonstrating a ‘Strong BULL’ trend phase, trading comfortably above its 20-day moving average with a robust ADX of 42.3, signaling significant conviction. The VIX remains at a ‘Normal’ 16.04, down 0.2%, indicating stable, low near-term volatility, aligning with the overall market sentiment.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation is currently indicative of an economic expansion, with Technology, Healthcare, and Communication Services leading the charge. This leadership suggests investors are favoring growth-oriented and innovation-driven sectors, a common pattern in positive economic cycles. Conversely, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials are lagging, highlighting a potential rotation out of more cyclical or sensitive areas. The pronounced negative scores and returns for these bottom three sectors underscore a clear divergence and signal key areas for potential underperformance.