Market Pulse · September 26, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment presents a RISK-ON disposition, supported by a healthy Sahm Rule at -0.07 and normal yield curve spreads across both the 10y-2y (0.36) and 10y-3m (0.93) tenors, indicating no immediate recessionary fears. While CPI remains elevated at 3.7%, the Fed Funds Rate is neutral at 3.63%, suggesting policy is not overly restrictive, further bolstered by a healthy unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fear & Greed Index is in ‘Greed’ territory at 71, indicating investor optimism, and the DXY Dollar Index is stable at 101.0, all contributing to a positive risk appetite.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, specifically the S&P 500, are currently in a weak BULL phase with an ADX of 10.3, trading above its 20-day moving average, but the trend strength is noted as weak, implying limited conviction. Conversely, Bitcoin displays a StrongBULL trend with an ADX of 44.0, comfortably above its 20-day moving average, reflecting robust digital asset momentum. The VIX is at a low 14.87, down 5.1%, suggesting subdued expectations for near-term volatility, which typically accompanies a RISK-ON environment, though the divergence between US equity and crypto strength warrants attention.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation indicates a preference for economic expansion, with Technology, Healthcare, and Communication sectors leading the charge, reflecting strong demand for growth-oriented and innovative industries. Conversely, Materials, Real Estate, and Utilities are lagging significantly, suggesting a risk-off sentiment within defensive and cyclical sectors heavily impacted by economic slowdown fears. This divergence highlights a market environment where investors are chasing growth narratives, potentially overlooking value in more defensive areas.