Market Pulse · September 22, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment registers a NEUTRAL stance today, scoring a 10, indicating a balance of forces rather than a clear directional signal. The Sahm Rule remains in ‘Safe’ territory, suggesting no immediate recessionary concerns, while the 10y-2y yield curve spread has narrowed to 0.20, implying diminishing long-term growth expectations. Although the 10y-3m curve is normally sloped at 0.79, elevated CPI at 3.7% alongside a neutral Fed funds rate of 3.63% signals persistent inflation pressures. The Fear & Greed Index at 70 points to ‘Greed’ but is classified as ‘Balanced’, while the DXY sits at a neutral 100.4, and unemployment holds at a healthy 4.1%.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, as represented by the S&P 500, are in a ‘Weak BULL’ trend phase, indicated by an ADX of 12.2, but importantly, the index is trading above its 20-day moving average, suggesting near-term upward momentum is still present. Bitcoin, in stark contrast, exhibits a ‘Strong BULL’ trend with an ADX of 42.9 and is also trading comfortably above its 20-day MA, showcasing robust momentum in the crypto space. The VIX remains at a low 14.87, signaling muted expectations for near-term volatility, which generally supports riskier assets.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation is currently tilted towards economic expansion, with Technology and Communication Services leading the pack, while Energy shows a surprising positive score despite recent trends. Conversely, Real Estate, Industrials, and Materials are firmly in the bottom three, indicating a pronounced underweighting by the UQ AI Engine, likely due to cyclical headwinds. This divergence suggests a market where growth-oriented technology and communication stocks are favored, while traditional industrial and material plays are facing significant headwinds.