Market Pulse · September 16, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

Today’s macro environment is assessed as RISK-ON, underpinned by a score of 35, indicating a generally favorable backdrop. The Sahm Rule’s ‘Safe’ reading of -0.07 suggests no immediate recessionary fears, while the positive 10-year to 2-year yield curve spread of 0.33 points to a ‘Normal’ economic outlook. Although CPI year-over-year remains elevated at 3.7%, the Fed Funds Rate is currently ‘Neutral’ at 3.63%, offering a balanced monetary policy stance. The ‘Greed’ reading in the Fear & Greed Index at 69, coupled with a ‘Weak Dollar’ DXY at 99.7 and a ‘Healthy’ unemployment rate of 4.1%, collectively support a risk-positive sentiment.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, represented by the S&P 500, are currently in a ‘BEAR’ phase with a ‘Weak BEAR’ trend strength indicated by an ADX of 11.1; importantly, the index is trading below its 20-day moving average. Bitcoin, however, exhibits a ‘SIDEWAYS’ trend with strong momentum, evidenced by an ADX of 42.0, though it also remains below its 20-day moving average. The VIX index is at a ‘Normal’ 17.2, suggesting limited near-term volatility expectations despite the underlying bearish equity trend.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation is currently characterized by a ‘Recovery’ theme, with Financials, Energy, and Industrials showing relative strength. Communication Services leads the pack with a strong score of 75.8, followed by Energy at 50.7, indicating investor preference for these areas. Conversely, Industrials are unexpectedly among the bottom performers despite the ‘Recovery’ narrative, alongside Consumer Discretionary and Utilities, which are heavily lagging. This divergence suggests that while broad cyclical recovery themes are emerging, specific sub-sectors are facing headwinds or are being overlooked by current market flows.