Market Pulse · September 08, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment is firmly in a RISK-ON stance, buoyed by a ‘Safe’ Sahm Rule reading and normal yield curve spreads (41bps for 10y-2y and 87bps for 10y-3m) suggesting no immediate recessionary fears. While CPI remains elevated at 3.5%, the Fed funds rate at a neutral 3.63% combined with a healthy 4.1% unemployment rate and a weakening dollar (DXY 99.2) create a supportive backdrop for risk assets. The ‘Greed’ sentiment in the Fear & Greed Index, though balanced at 71, also points towards positive market psychology, reinforcing the overall risk-on tilt.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, represented by the S&P 500, are exhibiting a ‘Weak BULL’ trend (ADX 13.5) and are trading above their 20-day moving average, indicating positive momentum but a lack of sustained conviction. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) is firmly in a ‘Strong BULL’ phase with a high ADX of 47.9, clearly outperforming. The VIX sits at a ‘Normal’ 15.3, up 5.3%, signaling a slight increase in expected near-term volatility but not yet a cause for significant alarm.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation is characterized by a ‘Recovery’ theme, with Energy, Communication Services, and Healthcare emerging as the leading sectors. This suggests a broad economic uplift where cyclical and defensive plays are gaining traction. Notably, Energy’s strong score and robust 1-month return highlight its current outperformance, while Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials are lagging significantly, indicating potential headwinds or a rotation away from these segments.