Market Pulse · October 14, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The current macro environment presents a ‘RISK-ON’ stance, underpinned by a favorable Sahm Rule reading and a normally sloped yield curve, suggesting no immediate recessionary fears. While CPI remains elevated at 3.7%, the Fed funds rate is held at a neutral 3.75%, indicating a balanced approach to inflation management. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 57, reflecting cautious optimism, and a neutral DXY further supports this risk appetite, complemented by a healthy unemployment rate of 4.2%. This constellation of indicators generally favors assets with higher risk profiles.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, represented by the S&P 500, are currently in a ‘BULL’ trend, exhibiting a weak but present upward momentum with an ADX of 9.2, and importantly, trading above its 20-day moving average. Bitcoin, however, is in a ‘SIDEWAYS’ trend, showing a stronger ADX of 29.7 but failing to hold above its 20-day moving average, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction. The VIX remains at a normal level of 15.27, up slightly, indicating contained but not absent near-term volatility, with US markets showing a stronger overall score than crypto.

SECTOR TRENDS

We are observing a defensive rotation in sector performance, with Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Energy emerging as the top performers. This shift suggests investors are prioritizing stability and defensive characteristics amid broader market trends, while sectors like Real Estate, Financials, and Industrials are lagging significantly, indicating a potential loss of confidence in cyclical or growth-oriented areas. This rotation, despite an overall ‘RISK-ON’ macro environment, highlights underlying caution and a preference for value and predictable earnings.