Market Pulse · October 08, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment is firmly in a RISK-ON stance, supported by a safe Sahm Rule and normal yield curve spreads (10y-2y at 0.51 and 10y-3m at 1.06), indicating the economy is not showing recessionary signals and a healthy yield curve. While the CPI remains elevated at 3.7%, the Fed Funds Rate is neutral at 3.75%, suggesting a balanced policy approach as the unemployment rate holds at a healthy 4.2%. The Fear & Greed Index registering at 71 in ‘Greed’ territory, coupled with a neutral DXY at 102.3, further reinforces a positive risk appetite. This confluence of factors suggests that market participants are comfortable taking on more risk.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, specifically the S&P 500, are exhibiting a ‘Weak BULL’ trend phase with an ADX of 10.1, and the index is trading above its 20-day moving average. Conversely, Bitcoin is in a ‘SIDEWAYS’ trend phase, characterized by a strong ADX of 42.7 but trading below its 20-day moving average, signaling a lack of clear direction in crypto markets. The VIX remains at a ‘Normal’ level of 15.08 with a slight upward tick, suggesting that near-term volatility expectations are subdued but not entirely absent, allowing for continued bullish sentiment in equities.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation is indicative of economic expansion, with Technology, Healthcare, and Energy currently leading. Technology, in particular, shows a commanding score of 84.6, reinforcing its leadership position, while Healthcare at 33.5 and Energy at 25.2 also contribute positively to the risk-on sentiment. Conversely, Financials, Real Estate, and Communication sectors are lagging significantly, with scores deeply in negative territory, suggesting a divergence in performance and potential headwinds for these areas as capital flows towards growth-oriented sectors. Investors should note this strong performance in Tech and Healthcare as key drivers of market upside.