Market Pulse · October 04, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment signals a robust RISK-ON stance, underpinned by a high score of 30. The Sahm Rule remains at 0.0, indicating no recessionary fears, while both the 10y-2y and 10y-3m yield curves are normally sloped, suggesting healthy economic expectations. Although CPI at 3.7% remains elevated, the Fed funds rate at 3.75% is neutral, and the healthy unemployment rate of 4.2% supports a positive risk appetite, further bolstered by the ‘Greed’ sentiment in the Fear & Greed Index. The DXY at 101.9 is also neutral, providing no significant headwinds.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, represented by the S&P 500, are in a weak BULL trend with an ADX of 9.1, currently trading above its 20-day moving average, indicating upward momentum, albeit with low conviction. Bitcoin, conversely, exhibits a StrongBULL trend with a high ADX of 41.9 and is also trading above its 20-day moving average, signaling a more established upward trajectory in the crypto space. The VIX is at a normal 15.31, down 6.6%, suggesting moderating near-term volatility concerns as risk assets show resilience.

SECTOR TRENDS

Sector rotation is currently favoring an economic expansion narrative, with Technology leading the charge, closely followed by Energy and Industrials, reflecting a broad-based optimism. Conversely, Utilities, Real Estate, and Financials are lagging, indicating a shift away from defensive and interest-rate sensitive sectors. This divergence highlights a market environment where growth-oriented and potentially cyclical themes are attracting capital, while areas typically offering stability or sensitive to monetary policy shifts are being deprioritized.