Market Pulse · August 16, 2026 · Post-Market Edition

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

The macro environment signals a RISK-ON stance, underscored by a robust score of 40, driven by a healthy labor market with unemployment at 4.1% and a stable Fed funds rate near 3.63%. The Sahm rule at -0.03 indicates no immediate recessionary threat, and the positively sloped yield curves (10y-2y at 0.51 and 10y-3m at 0.82) support economic expansionary sentiment. While CPI remains elevated at 3.5%, it is being absorbed by the broader positive indicators, further supported by a weakening dollar (DXY 99.7) and a Fear & Greed Index balanced in ‘Fear’ territory.

MARKET PHASE

US equities, as represented by the S&P 500, are in a sustained BULL trend, currently trading above its 20-day moving average and exhibiting weak but positive trend strength (ADX 22.7). In contrast, Bitcoin is navigating a BEAR trend, trading below its 20-day moving average with very weak trend strength (ADX 13.3), indicating significant divergence between traditional and digital asset markets. The VIX remains subdued at 14.25, classifying as ‘Low’ and suggesting a near-term expectation of limited volatility, aligning with the dominant equity bull narrative.

SECTOR TRENDS

Today’s market pulse indicates a clear economic expansion narrative fueling sector rotation, with Technology, Energy, and Materials leading the charge, reflecting strong demand for growth and cyclical assets. The top-performing sectors, including Industrials and Healthcare, further solidify this thematic, suggesting investors are favoring areas poised to benefit from increased economic activity. Conversely, defensive sectors like Financials, Real Estate, and especially Utilities are lagging, as evidenced by their significantly lower scores and negative one-month returns, signaling a diminished appetite for risk-averse investments.