Daily Briefing · October 04, 2026 · US Market Open

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

October 04, 2026

US Market Open · 23:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Buy signals: SPY (88%), AAPL (98%), TSM (85%). RISK-ON macro, leading tech, GCS bullish signal RISK-ON macro, leading tech, GCS BUY signal. Overall macro: RISK-ON (score +30).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.0

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.45

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

1.09

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.75

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

65 · Greed

Balanced0

DXY

101.9

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

Risk appetite elevated — growth assets favored

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-10-02

7,722.72

BULL

+0.7% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,670)

ADX9 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-10-04

85,233.87

BULL

+2.9% vs MA20 · Strong BULL

MA20Above (82,795)

ADX42 — Strong

TrendStrong BULL

VIX · data 2026-10-02

15.31

Normal

-6.6% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Technology leading

Technology (XLK)

+7.6%×1.05

Energy (XLE)

-2.2%×1.05

Industrials (XLI)

-2.4%×1.05

Communication (XLC)

-2.4%×1.00

Healthcare (XLV)

-3.7%×1.00

Consumer Staples (XLP)

-4.9%×1.00

Consumer Disc. (XLY)

-5.3%×1.00

Materials (XLB)

-6.7%×1.00

Utilities (XLU)

-6.8%×0.90

Real Estate (XLRE)

-7.0%×0.90

Financials (XLF)

-8.3%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalEconomic expansion — Tech·Consumer·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 7 · SELL 0 · HOLD 3

SPY

GCS · 1d

BUY

769.64

Entry / SL / TP

769.64 / 758.10 / 800.43

Confidence

88%

80→88

RISK-ON macro, leading tech, GCS bullish signal

AAPL

GCS · 1d

BUY

333.69

Entry / SL / TP

333.69 / 328.68 / 347.04

Confidence

98%

85→98

RISK-ON macro, leading tech, GCS BUY signal.

NVDA

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

233.95

Entry / SL / TP

233.95 / 222.15 / 257.56

Confidence

58%

50→58

AI_VWAP HOLD signal, positive macro/sector

TSM

GCS · 1d

BUY

472.78

Entry / SL / TP

472.78 / 465.69 / 491.69

Confidence

85%

77→85

Bullish macro, leading tech, positive TA signals.

MELI

GCS · 1d

HOLD

1,696.56

Entry / SL / TP

1,696.56 / 1,730.49 / 1,611.73

Confidence

50%

45→50

Technical HOLD signal, weak RSI, below Gaussian. Macro risk-on.

005930.KS

MA_ALIGN · 1d

HOLD

276,000

Entry / SL / TP

276,000 / 265,324 / 297,351

Confidence

44%

40→44

MA alignment incomplete. Waiting for clearer signal.

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

BUY

85,227

Entry / SL / TP

85,227 / 81,083 / 101,801

Confidence

79%

72→79

Bullish macro/market, leading tech sector.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

2,697.19

Entry / SL / TP

2,697.19 / 2,656.73 / 2,832.05

Confidence

82%

75→82

RISK-ON, BULLISH crypto, GCS above center, RSI good.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

BUY

1.5002

Entry / SL / TP

1.5002 / 1.3802 / 1.7402

Confidence

85%

77→85

Bullish AI_VWAP, RISK-ON macro, strong crypto market.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

BUY

121.70

Entry / SL / TP

121.70 / 112.82 / 139.46

Confidence

77%

70→77

Bullish macro/market. AI_VWAP UP. RSI 66.3.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP10/04 14:06HOLD208.57

ASML10/04 14:06BUY1,867.31

PBR10/04 14:06BUY21.6500

VALE10/04 14:06HOLD13.7600

SHIB-USD10/04 14:06HOLD0.000006

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

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