Daily Briefing · July 31, 2026 · US Market Open

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 31, 2026

US Market Open · 23:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +40

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Buy signals: BTC-USD (77%), ETH-USD (85%). RISK-ON macro, bullish tech signal, sideways crypto market RISK-ON macro, GCS strategy positive, positive technicals Overall macro: RISK-ON (score +40).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +40RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.45

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.86

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

25 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.4

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +40

RISK-ON

Risk appetite elevated — growth assets favored

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-31

7,442.85

BEAR

-0.5% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (7,479)

ADX18 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-31

63,216.55

BEAR

-1.9% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (64,446)

ADX15 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

VIX · data 2026-07-31

17.48

Normal

+2.3% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Energy leading

Energy (XLE)

+10.5%×1.05

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+0.0%×1.05

Financials (XLF)

+2.2%×1.05

Consumer Disc. (XLY)

-1.2%×1.00

Real Estate (XLRE)

+0.5%×1.00

Healthcare (XLV)

-1.5%×1.00

Industrials (XLI)

-2.9%×1.00

Materials (XLB)

-3.0%×1.00

Technology (XLK)

-3.2%×0.90

Communication (XLC)

-2.5%×0.90

Utilities (XLU)

-3.0%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalRecovery — Financials·Energy·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 2 · SELL 0 · HOLD 8

SPY

NO_ENTRY · 1d

HOLD

741.01

Entry / SL / TP

741.01 / 718.78 / 785.47

Confidence

0→0

SPY BEAR 국면 진입 확인 — 검증된 전략 없어 신규 진입 보류 (2026-07-25 Bear Sweep: GCS/AI_VWAP/BEAR_DEFENSE/MTF_ORDERFLOW × 4h/1d 전 조합 MIN_TRADES 미달)

AAPL

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

301.95

Entry / SL / TP

301.95 / 321.65 / 272.40

Confidence

50%

50→50

BEAR market, HOLD signal, weak tech sector

NVDA

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

197.00

Entry / SL / TP

197.00 / 211.66 / 175.01

Confidence

35%

35→35

Mixed signals, holding due to uncertain trend. Tech is weak.

TSM

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

404.29

Entry / SL / TP

404.29 / 441.60 / 348.33

Confidence

50%

45→50

Conflicting signals: RISK-ON macro vs BEAR market

MELI

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

1,883.01

Entry / SL / TP

1,883.01 / 1,991.28 / 1,720.59

Confidence

55%

50→55

Uncertainty in downtrend, prefer cash. Hold.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

262,500

Entry / SL / TP

262,500 / 317,529 / 179,956

Confidence

55%

50→55

Bear market + Hold signal. Awaiting clearer trend.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

BUY

62,820

Entry / SL / TP

62,820 / 61,877 / 65,961

Confidence

77%

70→77

RISK-ON macro, bullish tech signal, sideways crypto market

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,857.61

Entry / SL / TP

1,857.61 / 1,829.75 / 1,950.49

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, GCS strategy positive, positive technicals

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

1.0637

Entry / SL / TP

1.0637 / 1.0850 / 1.0105

Confidence

50%

45→50

Hold due to sideways crypto market & tech.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

73.0700

Entry / SL / TP

73.0700 / 68.2000 / 82.8100

Confidence

50%

45→50

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro, but SIDEWAYS crypto & BEAR US.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/31 14:07SELL181.12

ASML07/31 14:07HOLD1,633.17

PBR07/31 14:07HOLD19.0300

VALE07/31 14:07HOLD14.7450

SHIB-USD07/31 14:07HOLD0.000005

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

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