Daily Briefing · July 21, 2026 · Post-US Market [ID]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 21, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Sinyal beli: ETH-USD (85%), SOL-USD (73%). Makro RISK-ON, kripto BULL, sinyal TA kuat, risiko/imbalan yang menguntungkan. Makro bullish, pasar kripto. Strategi selaras. Makro keseluruhan: RISK-ON (skor +30).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.39

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.74

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

29 · Fear

Balanced0

DXY

101.0

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

Selera risiko meningkat — aset pertumbuhan lebih disukai

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-20

7,443.28

BEAR

-0.4% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (7,476)

ADX12 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-20

65,178.00

BULL

+2.7% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (63,468)

ADX22 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

VIX · data 2026-07-20

18.65

Normal

-0.6% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Energy leading

Energi (XLE)

+8.5%×1.05

Keuangan (XLF)

+5.0%×1.05

Real Estat (XLRE)

+4.0%×1.05

Bahan Pokok Konsumen (XLP)

+2.6%×1.00

Komunikasi (XLC)

+1.5%×1.00

Perawatan Kesehatan (XLV)

+7.1%×1.00

Utilitas (XLU)

+1.0%×1.00

Industri (XLI)

-1.3%×1.00

Barang Konsumsi Primer (XLY)

-2.0%×0.90

Material (XLB)

-3.1%×0.90

Teknologi (XLK)

-8.1%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalRecovery — Financials·Energy·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 2 · SELL 0 · HOLD 8

SPY

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

742.09

Entry / SL / TP

742.09 / 758.97 / 716.77

Confidence

55%

50→55

Macro RISK-ON, tech HOLD, BEAR market phase.

AAPL

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

326.59

Entry / SL / TP

326.59 / 343.12 / 301.79

Confidence

50%

50→50

Technical HOLD, BEAR market, cautious outlook.

NVDA

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

203.28

Entry / SL / TP

203.28 / 217.95 / 181.28

Confidence

35%

35→35

Conflicting signals: RISK-ON macro vs BEAR market & HOLD TA.

TSM

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

402.30

Entry / SL / TP

402.30 / 439.59 / 346.36

Confidence

55%

50→55

BEAR market phase, HOLD signal in TA

MELI

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

1,832.42

Entry / SL / TP

1,832.42 / 1,951.98 / 1,653.09

Confidence

33%

30→33

Bear market phase despite risk-on macro. Hold cash.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

244,000

Entry / SL / TP

244,000 / 294,480 / 168,281

Confidence

38%

35→38

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro, BEAR market, HOLD TA.

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

HOLD

65,100

Entry / SL / TP

65,100 / 61,845 / 71,610

Confidence

42%

38→42

MTF conditions not met, golden zone missed, volume imbalance.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,897.78

Entry / SL / TP

1,897.78 / 1,869.31 / 1,992.67

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, BULL crypto, strong TA signal, favorable risk/reward.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

HOLD

1.1110

Entry / SL / TP

1.1110 / 1.0412 / 1.2506

Confidence

50%

45→50

ML VWAP downtrend, RSI neutral. Macro positive.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

BUY

77.6200

Entry / SL / TP

77.6200 / 72.0023 / 88.8553

Confidence

73%

66→73

Bullish macro, crypto market. Aligned strategy.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/20 22:07HOLD158.35

ASML07/20 22:07HOLD1,739.02

PBR07/20 22:07HOLD18.1900

VALE07/20 22:07HOLD14.1000

DOGE-USD07/20 22:07HOLD0.071910

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →