Daily Briefing · July 20, 2026 · Post-US Market [zh-CN]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 20, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

买入信号：ETH-USD (77%)。RISK-ON 宏观、BULL 加密货币、看涨 TA、GCS 一致整体宏观：RISK-ON (评分 +30)。

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.37

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.70

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

28 · Fear

Balanced0

DXY

100.8

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

风险偏好升高 — 看好增长型资产

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-17

7,457.69

BEAR

-0.3% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (7,479)

ADX12 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-19

64,379.99

BULL

+2.0% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (63,122)

ADX23 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

VIX · data 2026-07-17

18.77

Normal

+12.2% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Energy leading

能源 (XLE)

+6.3%×1.05

金融 (XLF)

+4.5%×1.05

房地产 (XLRE)

+4.2%×1.05

必需消费品 (XLP)

+2.5%×1.00

医疗保健 (XLV)

+7.4%×1.00

通信 (XLC)

+1.6%×1.00

公用事业 (XLU)

+2.2%×1.00

工业 (XLI)

+0.1%×1.00

非必需消费品 (XLY)

+0.2%×0.90

材料 (XLB)

-2.5%×0.90

科技 (XLK)

-5.4%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalRecovery — Financials·Energy·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 1 · SELL 0 · HOLD 9

SPY

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

743.29

Entry / SL / TP

743.29 / 760.36 / 717.69

Confidence

55%

50→55

Bear market phase & technicals suggest caution. Hold.

AAPL

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

333.74

Entry / SL / TP

333.74 / 350.00 / 309.35

Confidence

42%

42→42

Conflicting macro/market signals, technical HOLD.

NVDA

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

202.81

Entry / SL / TP

202.81 / 217.77 / 180.37

Confidence

40%

40→40

Mixed signals: RISK-ON but BEAR market. Holding is prudent.

TSM

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

398.37

Entry / SL / TP

398.37 / 436.76 / 340.78

Confidence

44%

40→44

BEAR market, HOLD signal, caution warranted.

MELI

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

1,813.91

Entry / SL / TP

1,813.91 / 1,933.71 / 1,634.21

Confidence

44%

40→44

BEAR market, tech HOLD, macro RISK-ON neutral

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

255,000

Entry / SL / TP

255,000 / 306,670 / 177,495

Confidence

44%

40→44

Conflicting signals; BEAR market prevails over RISK-ON.

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

HOLD

64,380

Entry / SL / TP

64,380 / 61,161 / 70,818

Confidence

55%

50→55

Price below golden zone, but macro/market bullish.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,860.25

Entry / SL / TP

1,860.25 / 1,832.35 / 1,953.26

Confidence

77%

70→77

RISK-ON macro, BULL crypto, bullish TA, GCS aligns

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

HOLD

1.0935

Entry / SL / TP

1.0935 / 1.0238 / 1.2328

Confidence

46%

42→46

Mixed signals: bullish macro, bearish US, neutral crypto. TA HOLD.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

75.8000

Entry / SL / TP

75.8000 / 70.1515 / 87.0970

Confidence

50%

45→50

HOLD signal from strategy; risk-on macro but mixed markets.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/19 22:07HOLD159.04

ASML07/19 22:07HOLD1,747.58

PBR07/19 22:06HOLD17.9700

VALE07/19 22:06HOLD14.1900

DOGE-USD07/19 22:06HOLD0.071990

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →