Daily Briefing · July 18, 2026 · US Market Open

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 18, 2026

US Market Open · 23:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +40

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Buy signals: ETH-USD (82%). Risk-on macro, bullish crypto, positive technicals. Overall macro: RISK-ON (score +40).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +40RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.37

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.70

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

25 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.8

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +40

RISK-ON

Risk appetite elevated — growth assets favored

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-17

7,457.69

BEAR

-0.3% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (7,479)

ADX12 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-18

64,079.82

BULL

+1.9% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (62,874)

ADX23 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

VIX · data 2026-07-17

18.77

Normal

+12.2% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Energy leading

Energy (XLE)

+6.3%×1.05

Financials (XLF)

+4.5%×1.05

Real Estate (XLRE)

+4.2%×1.05

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+2.5%×1.00

Healthcare (XLV)

+7.4%×1.00

Communication (XLC)

+1.6%×1.00

Utilities (XLU)

+2.2%×1.00

Industrials (XLI)

+0.1%×1.00

Consumer Disc. (XLY)

+0.2%×0.90

Materials (XLB)

-2.5%×0.90

Technology (XLK)

-5.4%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalRecovery — Financials·Energy·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 1 · SELL 0 · HOLD 9

SPY

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

743.29

Entry / SL / TP

743.29 / 760.36 / 717.69

Confidence

55%

50→55

Bear market phase, technical uncertainty, hold defense.

AAPL

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

333.74

Entry / SL / TP

333.74 / 350.00 / 309.35

Confidence

45%

45→45

Mixed signals, hold for clarity.

NVDA

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

202.81

Entry / SL / TP

202.81 / 217.77 / 180.37

Confidence

50%

50→50

Technical HOLD signal. EMA200 above suggests uncertainty despite BEAR market.

TSM

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

398.37

Entry / SL / TP

398.37 / 436.76 / 340.78

Confidence

55%

50→55

Technical signal is HOLD (low strength). EMA200 above, macro RISK-ON vs BEAR market.

MELI

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

1,813.91

Entry / SL / TP

1,813.91 / 1,933.71 / 1,634.21

Confidence

55%

50→55

Bear market, tech signal HOLD, cash advised. Macro RISK-ON is positive.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

255,000

Entry / SL / TP

255,000 / 306,670 / 177,495

Confidence

44%

40→44

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro, BEAR market. Hold for clarity.

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

HOLD

64,086

Entry / SL / TP

64,086 / 60,881 / 70,494

Confidence

55%

50→55

Technical HOLD signal overrides positive macro/market.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,841.05

Entry / SL / TP

1,841.05 / 1,813.43 / 1,933.10

Confidence

82%

75→82

Risk-on macro, bullish crypto, positive technicals.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

HOLD

1.0850

Entry / SL / TP

1.0850 / 1.0123 / 1.2304

Confidence

50%

45→50

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro vs. weak TA. Strategy HOLD.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

74.6300

Entry / SL / TP

74.6300 / 68.7544 / 86.3811

Confidence

54%

49→54

Macro RISK-ON, but TA is neutral. HOLD.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/18 14:10HOLD159.04

ASML07/18 14:09HOLD1,747.58

PBR07/18 14:09HOLD17.9700

VALE07/18 14:09HOLD14.1900

DOGE-USD07/18 14:08HOLD0.072090

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

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Stock Analysis

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