Daily Briefing · July 18, 2026 · Post-US Market [JP]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 18, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

全体的なマクロ：RISK-ON（スコア+30）。

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.37

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.70

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

27 · Fear

Balanced0

DXY

100.8

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

リスク選好度の上昇 — 成長資産が好まれる

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-17

7,457.69

BEAR

-0.3% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (7,479)

ADX12 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-17

64,109.16

BULL

+2.3% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (62,657)

ADX23 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

VIX · data 2026-07-17

18.77

Normal

+12.2% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Energy leading

エネルギー (XLE)

+6.3%×1.05

金融 (XLF)

+4.5%×1.05

不動産 (XLRE)

+4.2%×1.05

生活必需品 (XLP)

+2.5%×1.00

ヘルスケア (XLV)

+7.4%×1.00

コミュニケーション (XLC)

+1.6%×1.00

公益事業 (XLU)

+2.2%×1.00

資本財 (XLI)

+0.1%×1.00

一般消費財 (XLY)

+0.2%×0.90

素材 (XLB)

-2.5%×0.90

テクノロジー (XLK)

-5.4%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalRecovery — Financials·Energy·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 0 · SELL 0 · HOLD 10

SPY

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

743.29

Entry / SL / TP

743.29 / 760.36 / 717.69

Confidence

55%

50→55

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro vs BEAR market. HOLDing.

AAPL

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

333.74

Entry / SL / TP

333.74 / 350.00 / 309.35

Confidence

40%

40→40

Mixed signals, holding for clarity.

NVDA

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

202.81

Entry / SL / TP

202.81 / 217.77 / 180.37

Confidence

50%

50→50

Technicals indicate HOLD, tech sector weak.

TSM

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

398.37

Entry / SL / TP

398.37 / 436.76 / 340.78

Confidence

42%

38→42

Mixed signals: Risk-on macro, BEAR market. Tech analysis supports HOLD.

MELI

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

1,813.91

Entry / SL / TP

1,813.91 / 1,933.67 / 1,634.26

Confidence

50%

45→50

Bear market, tech HOLD, wait for clearer direction.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

255,000

Entry / SL / TP

255,000 / 306,670 / 177,495

Confidence

33%

30→33

Market phase BEAR, Tech HOLD. Risk ON macro positive.

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

HOLD

64,026

Entry / SL / TP

64,026 / 60,825 / 70,429

Confidence

44%

40→44

MTF conditions not met: VWAP deviation too high. Holding current position.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

HOLD

1,840.01

Entry / SL / TP

1,840.01 / 1,812.41 / 1,932.01

Confidence

44%

40→44

TA HOLD signal, mixed market phases, neutral macro.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

HOLD

1.0875

Entry / SL / TP

1.0875 / 1.0103 / 1.2418

Confidence

53%

48→53

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro, but weak tech. Holding.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

74.9600

Entry / SL / TP

74.9600 / 68.9632 / 86.9536

Confidence

50%

45→50

ML VWAP downtrend, RSI below 50, neutral market phase

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/17 22:07HOLD159.04

ASML07/17 22:07HOLD1,747.58

PBR07/17 22:07HOLD17.9700

VALE07/17 22:06HOLD14.1900

DOGE-USD07/17 22:06HOLD0.072460

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →