Daily Briefing · July 17, 2026 · Post-US Market [zh-TW]

ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 17, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +40

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

買入訊號：AAPL (76%), ETH-USD (86%)。RISK-ON, GCS 強勁, 超過質心, RSI > 70 RISK-ON, Crypto BULL, TA HOLD 但前景看好。整體宏觀：RISK-ON (分數 +40)。

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +40RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.41

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.73

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

25 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.7

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +40

RISK-ON

風險偏好升高 — 看好成長型資產

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-16

7,533.77

BULL

+0.8% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,477)

ADX12 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-16

64,184.68

BULL

+2.7% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (62,468)

ADX22 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

VIX · data 2026-07-16

16.73

Normal

+6.8% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Financials leading

金融 (XLF)

+4.8%×1.05

能源 (XLE)

+3.7%×1.05

房地產 (XLRE)

+1.7%×1.05

必需消費品 (XLP)

+0.9%×1.00

通訊 (XLC)

+0.6%×1.00

非必需消費品 (XLY)

-0.8%×1.00

醫療保健 (XLV)

+6.3%×1.00

公用事業 (XLU)

+1.6%×1.00

工業 (XLI)

+0.4%×0.90

材料 (XLB)

-3.1%×0.90

科技 (XLK)

-4.7%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalDefensive rotation — Staples·Utilities·Healthcare leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 2 · SELL 0 · HOLD 8

SPY

GCS · 1d

HOLD

750.72

Entry / SL / TP

750.72 / 739.46 / 780.75

Confidence

55%

50→55

RISK-ON macro, but SIDEWAYS US market & HOLD signal.

AAPL

GCS · 1d

BUY

333.26

Entry / SL / TP

333.26 / 328.26 / 346.59

Confidence

76%

77→76

RISK-ON, GCS strong, above centroid, RSI > 70

NVDA

GCS · 1d

HOLD

207.40

Entry / SL / TP

207.40 / 217.77 / 203.25

Confidence

45%

45→45

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro, sideways US market, weak tech sector.

TSM

GCS · 1d

HOLD

409.74

Entry / SL / TP

409.74 / 393.35 / 415.89

Confidence

50%

45→50

HOLD; Tech indicates weakness (Gaussian/RSI); Macro RISK-ON but TSM not leading.

MELI

GCS · 1d

HOLD

1,857.42

Entry / SL / TP

1,857.42 / 1,820.27 / 1,950.29

Confidence

50%

45→50

Bullish macro, sideways market. HOLD per TA signal.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

255,000

Entry / SL / TP

255,000 / 306,670 / 177,495

Confidence

50%

45→50

Bearish market phase, technical HOLD signal.

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

HOLD

64,128

Entry / SL / TP

64,128 / 60,922 / 70,541

Confidence

44%

40→44

Strategy HOLD, conditions not met

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,878.41

Entry / SL / TP

1,878.41 / 1,972.33 / 1,850.23

Confidence

86%

78→86

RISK-ON, Crypto BULL, TA HOLD but strong outlook.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

HOLD

1.0978

Entry / SL / TP

1.0978 / 1.0188 / 1.2557

Confidence

38%

35→38

Strategy HOLD, mixed market signals, risk-on macro

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

75.9200

Entry / SL / TP

75.9200 / 69.8464 / 88.0672

Confidence

38%

35→38

Technical HOLD signal, bearish VWAP, neutral macro/market

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/16 22:07HOLD161.64

ASML07/16 22:07HOLD1,784.87

PBR07/16 22:07HOLD17.4700

VALE07/16 22:07HOLD14.2200

DOGE-USD07/16 22:07HOLD0.073240

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →