Daily Briefing · July 16, 2026 · Post-US Market [ID]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 16, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +40

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Sinyal beli: SPY (89%), TSM (85%), ETH-USD (86%). AI_VWAP bullish, makro RISK-ON, fase pasar BULL RISK-ON, pasar BULL, sinyal bullish AI_VWAP. Makro keseluruhan: RISK-ON (skor +40).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +40RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.42

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.72

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

—

No data0

Fear & Greed

25 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.5

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +40

RISK-ON

Selera risiko meningkat — aset pertumbuhan disukai

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

BULL

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-15

7,572.40

BULL

+1.3% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,476)

ADX13 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-15

64,752.65

BULL

+4.0% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (62,262)

ADX23 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

VIX · data 2026-07-15

15.67

Normal

-5.0% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Financials leading

Keuangan (XLF)

+6.0%×1.05

Energi (XLE)

+2.4%×1.05

Komunikasi (XLC)

+1.3%×1.05

Kesehatan (XLV)

+4.0%×1.00

Real Estat (XLRE)

-0.1%×1.00

Konsumen Diskresioner (XLY)

-1.1%×1.00

Utilitas (XLU)

+1.7%×1.00

Industri (XLI)

+1.0%×1.00

Konsumen Pokok (XLP)

-1.7%×0.90

Material (XLB)

-3.5%×0.90

Teknologi (XLK)

-5.2%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalRecovery — Financials·Energy·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 4 · SELL 0 · HOLD 6

SPY

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

754.81

Entry / SL / TP

754.81 / 737.73 / 788.98

Confidence

89%

81→89

AI_VWAP bullish, RISK-ON macro, BULL market phase

AAPL

MA_ALIGN · 1d

HOLD

327.50

Entry / SL / TP

327.50 / 311.12 / 360.25

Confidence

40%

40→40

MA alignment incomplete. Waiting for stronger signal.

NVDA

MA_ALIGN · 1d

HOLD

212.50

Entry / SL / TP

212.50 / 204.40 / 228.69

Confidence

37%

37→37

MA alignment incomplete, awaiting confirmation. Hold strategy.

TSM

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

419.48

Entry / SL / TP

419.48 / 385.92 / 486.60

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON, BULL market, AI_VWAP bullish signal

MELI

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

1,843.19

Entry / SL / TP

1,843.19 / 1,722.26 / 2,085.05

Confidence

50%

45→50

Mixed signals; TA HOLD, strong macro/market

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

279,500

Entry / SL / TP

279,500 / 330,991 / 202,263

Confidence

50%

45→50

Mixed signals: bullish macro, bearish KR market. Technical HOLD.

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

HOLD

64,796

Entry / SL / TP

64,796 / 61,556 / 71,275

Confidence

50%

45→50

MTF conditions not met, below golden zone

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,922.24

Entry / SL / TP

1,922.24 / 2,018.35 / 1,893.41

Confidence

86%

78→86

Bullish macro/market, leading sectors, positive TA signals.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

HOLD

1.1156

Entry / SL / TP

1.1156 / 1.0349 / 1.2770

Confidence

38%

35→38

Mixed signals, HOLD due to technicals & market phase.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

BUY

77.4300

Entry / SL / TP

77.4300 / 71.2356 / 89.8188

Confidence

75%

68→75

Bullish macro/market, AI_VWAP HOLD bias overruled

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/15 22:08HOLD155.91

ASML07/15 22:08HOLD1,815.27

PBR07/15 22:08HOLD17.8600

VALE07/15 22:08HOLD14.6700

DOGE-USD07/15 22:08HOLD0.073970

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →