Daily Briefing · July 14, 2026 · US Market Open

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 14, 2026

US Market Open · 23:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +35

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Buy signals: ETH-USD (94%). Bullish macro, strong TA signal, positive market alignment. Overall macro: RISK-ON (score +35).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +35RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.36

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.73

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

22 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.7

Neutral0

Unemployment

—

No data0

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · FG+10 = +35

RISK-ON

Risk appetite elevated — growth assets favored

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-14

7,537.41

BULL

+0.8% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,475)

ADX14 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-14

63,802.83

SIDEWAYS

+3.0% vs MA20 · Sideways

MA20Above (61,952)

ADX24 — Weak

TrendSideways

VIX · data 2026-07-14

16.44

Normal

-4.2% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Financials leading

Financials (XLF)

+6.4%×1.05

Utilities (XLU)

+3.9%×1.05

Energy (XLE)

-0.5%×1.05

Healthcare (XLV)

+3.5%×1.00

Real Estate (XLRE)

-0.9%×1.00

Consumer Staples (XLP)

-1.3%×1.00

Communication (XLC)

+0.1%×1.00

Industrials (XLI)

+3.1%×1.00

Technology (XLK)

-0.8%×0.90

Materials (XLB)

-1.7%×0.90

Consumer Disc. (XLY)

-0.4%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalDefensive rotation — Staples·Utilities·Healthcare leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 1 · SELL 0 · HOLD 9

SPY

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

750.45

Entry / SL / TP

750.45 / 733.17 / 785.00

Confidence

55%

50→55

HOLD signal despite bullish macro/market. ML VWAP uptrend. Conf. capped by HOLD rule.

AAPL

MA_ALIGN · 1d

HOLD

313.61

Entry / SL / TP

313.61 / 297.93 / 344.97

Confidence

32%

32→32

MA alignment incomplete, waiting for better setup.

NVDA

MA_ALIGN · 1d

HOLD

204.57

Entry / SL / TP

204.57 / 203.79 / 206.11

Confidence

40%

40→40

MA alignment incomplete, pending entry.

TSM

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

424.36

Entry / SL / TP

424.36 / 390.41 / 492.26

Confidence

55%

50→55

ML VWAP uptrend above baseline, neutral RSI, HOLD signal.

MELI

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

1,869.41

Entry / SL / TP

1,869.41 / 1,755.65 / 2,096.92

Confidence

50%

45→50

Technical HOLD signal, RSI near overbought

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

263,000

Entry / SL / TP

263,000 / 315,144 / 184,784

Confidence

44%

40→44

Bear market, mixed signals, holding cash.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

63,646

Entry / SL / TP

63,646 / 62,691 / 66,828

Confidence

50%

45→50

Sideways crypto, HOLD signal, risk-on macro

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,863.03

Entry / SL / TP

1,863.03 / 1,835.08 / 1,956.18

Confidence

94%

85→94

Bullish macro, strong TA signal, positive market alignment.

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

1.0958

Entry / SL / TP

1.0958 / 1.0410 / 1.1177

Confidence

50%

45→50

Technical HOLD signal, below GCS, RSI neutral.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

76.6800

Entry / SL / TP

76.6800 / 70.5456 / 88.9488

Confidence

38%

35→38

Technical HOLD signal overrides bullish macro. Sideways crypto phase.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/14 14:14HOLD154.18

ASML07/14 14:13SELL1,766.31

PBR07/14 14:13HOLD18.0695

VALE07/14 14:12HOLD14.6250

DOGE-USD07/14 14:11HOLD0.073800

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

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