Daily Briefing · July 05, 2026 · Post-US Market [zh-TW]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 05, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

買入訊號：AAPL (76%), TSM (88%), MELI (87%)。RISK-ON 宏觀環境，領先板塊，科技前景看漲。看漲宏觀環境，盤整市場，強勁板塊。買入。整體宏觀環境：RISK-ON（評分 +30）。

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.35

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.67

Normal+5

CPI YoY

4.3

High Inflation-15

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

22 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.9

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-15 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

風險偏好升高 — 看好成長型資產

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-02

7,483.24

BULL

+0.7% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,433)

ADX19 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-04

63,255.81

SIDEWAYS

+1.8% vs MA20 · Sideways

MA20Above (62,152)

ADX33 — Strong

TrendSideways

VIX · data 2026-07-02

16.15

Normal

-2.7% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Healthcare leading

醫療保健 (XLV)

+11.5%×1.05

金融 (XLF)

+9.7%×1.05

工業 (XLI)

+5.9%×1.05

公用事業 (XLU)

+5.4%×1.00

必需消費品 (XLP)

+4.2%×1.00

原物料 (XLB)

+1.1%×1.00

房地產 (XLRE)

+3.6%×1.00

非必需消費品 (XLY)

+0.5%×1.00

通訊 (XLC)

-2.0%×0.90

科技 (XLK)

-7.9%×0.90

能源 (XLE)

-8.7%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalDefensive rotation — Staples·Utilities·Healthcare leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 5 · SELL 0 · HOLD 5

SPY

GCS · 1d

HOLD

744.78

Entry / SL / TP

744.78 / 774.57 / 733.61

Confidence

50%

45→50

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro, sideways market, technical HOLD.

AAPL

GCS · 1d

BUY

308.63

Entry / SL / TP

308.63 / 304.00 / 320.98

Confidence

76%

77→76

RISK-ON macro, leading sectors, bullish tech outlook

NVDA

GCS · 1d

HOLD

194.83

Entry / SL / TP

194.83 / 198.73 / 185.09

Confidence

35%

35→35

Macro positive, but tech sector weak and technicals neutral.

TSM

GCS · 1d

BUY

434.16

Entry / SL / TP

434.16 / 427.65 / 451.53

Confidence

88%

80→88

Bullish macro, sideways market, strong sectors. Buy.

MELI

GCS · 1d

BUY

1,763.36

Entry / SL / TP

1,763.36 / 1,728.09 / 1,851.53

Confidence

87%

79→87

RISK-ON macro, GCS bullish, strong leading sectors

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

309,500

Entry / SL / TP

309,500 / 360,612 / 232,832

Confidence

55%

50→55

BEAR market phase, HOLD signal, and low strength.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

BUY

63,202

Entry / SL / TP

63,202 / 66,362 / 62,254

Confidence

85%

77→85

Bullish macro, sideways market, strong TA signals.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

HOLD

1,784.43

Entry / SL / TP

1,784.43 / 1,811.20 / 1,695.21

Confidence

55%

50→55

HOLD signal (Gaussian below), Crypto sideways. Macro RISK-ON supports overall, but not new entry.

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

BUY

1.1640

Entry / SL / TP

1.1640 / 1.1407 / 1.2222

Confidence

94%

85→94

RISK-ON macro + GCS BUY signal, good R:R

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

81.8400

Entry / SL / TP

81.8400 / 75.2928 / 94.9344

Confidence

55%

50→55

ML VWAP downtrend, RSI 64.7. Macro RISK-ON, but crypto sideways.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/04 22:09HOLD162.59

ASML07/04 22:09SELL1,769.32

PBR07/04 22:09HOLD16.1100

VALE07/04 22:09BUY14.9900

SHIB-USD07/04 22:09BUY0.000004

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →