Daily Briefing · July 04, 2026 · US Market Open

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 04, 2026

US Market Open · 23:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Buy signals: AAPL (74%), BTC-USD (85%), XRP-USD (85%). RISK-ON, strong sectors, positive tech trend RISK-ON macro, sideways crypto, GCS bullish signal. Overall macro: RISK-ON (score +30).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.35

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.67

Normal+5

CPI YoY

4.3

High Inflation-15

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

22 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.9

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-15 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

Risk appetite elevated — growth assets favored

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-02

7,483.24

BULL

+0.7% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,433)

ADX19 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-04

62,535.40

SIDEWAYS

+0.7% vs MA20 · Sideways

MA20Above (62,116)

ADX33 — Strong

TrendSideways

VIX · data 2026-07-02

16.15

Normal

-2.7% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Healthcare leading

Healthcare (XLV)

+11.5%×1.05

Financials (XLF)

+9.7%×1.05

Industrials (XLI)

+5.9%×1.05

Utilities (XLU)

+5.4%×1.00

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+4.2%×1.00

Materials (XLB)

+1.1%×1.00

Real Estate (XLRE)

+3.6%×1.00

Consumer Disc. (XLY)

+0.5%×1.00

Communication (XLC)

-2.0%×0.90

Technology (XLK)

-7.9%×0.90

Energy (XLE)

-8.7%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalDefensive rotation — Staples·Utilities·Healthcare leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 3 · SELL 0 · HOLD 7

SPY

GCS · 1d

HOLD

744.78

Entry / SL / TP

744.78 / 774.57 / 733.61

Confidence

50%

45→50

Mixed signals: Bullish macro, sideways market, HOLD TA.

AAPL

GCS · 1d

BUY

308.63

Entry / SL / TP

308.63 / 304.00 / 320.98

Confidence

74%

75→74

RISK-ON, strong sectors, positive tech trend

NVDA

GCS · 1d

HOLD

194.83

Entry / SL / TP

194.83 / 198.73 / 185.09

Confidence

41%

41→41

Hold: Gaussian below, RSI low, market sideways.

TSM

GCS · 1d

HOLD

434.16

Entry / SL / TP

434.16 / 427.65 / 451.53

Confidence

55%

50→55

Macro RISK-ON, market SIDEWAYS, technical HOLD (above Gaussian, rising)

MELI

GCS · 1d

HOLD

1,763.36

Entry / SL / TP

1,763.36 / 1,728.09 / 1,851.53

Confidence

55%

50→55

Tech HOLD (rising, above Gauss, RSI 61.6); Macro RISK-ON; Market Sideways.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

309,500

Entry / SL / TP

309,500 / 360,612 / 232,832

Confidence

44%

40→44

Bear market, tech uncertainty, holding cash.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

BUY

62,578

Entry / SL / TP

62,578 / 65,707 / 61,639

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, sideways crypto, GCS bullish signal.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

HOLD

1,765.40

Entry / SL / TP

1,765.40 / 1,791.88 / 1,677.13

Confidence

50%

45→50

Technical HOLD signal, mixed market phase.

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

BUY

1.1566

Entry / SL / TP

1.1566 / 1.1335 / 1.2144

Confidence

85%

77→85

GCS BUY, RISK-ON macro supports, Crypto sideways. Volume unconfirmed.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

81.6200

Entry / SL / TP

81.6200 / 75.0904 / 94.6792

Confidence

50%

45→50

AI VWAP shows downward trend, holding per strategy.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/04 14:11HOLD162.59

ASML07/04 14:11SELL1,769.32

PBR07/04 14:11HOLD16.1100

VALE07/04 14:11HOLD14.9900

SHIB-USD07/04 14:11BUY0.000004

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

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Stock Analysis

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