Daily Briefing · July 04, 2026 · Post-US Market [zh-TW]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 04, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

買入訊號：SPY (85%)、TSM (85%)、BTC-USD (94%)。RISK-ON 宏觀經濟，領先板塊，高於高斯。持有訊號。RISK-ON 宏觀經濟，GCS 策略看漲，領先板塊。整體宏觀經濟：RISK-ON (分數 +30)。

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.07

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.35

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.67

Normal+5

CPI YoY

4.3

High Inflation-15

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

21 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

100.9

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.2

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-15 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

風險偏好升高 — 看好成長型資產

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-07-02

7,483.24

BULL

+0.7% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,433)

ADX19 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-07-03

62,684.54

SIDEWAYS

+0.6% vs MA20 · Sideways

MA20Above (62,282)

ADX34 — Strong

TrendSideways

VIX · data 2026-07-03

15.81

Normal

-2.1% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Healthcare leading

醫療保健 (XLV)

+11.5%×1.05

金融 (XLF)

+9.7%×1.05

工業 (XLI)

+5.9%×1.05

公用事業 (XLU)

+5.4%×1.00

必需消費品 (XLP)

+4.2%×1.00

材料 (XLB)

+1.1%×1.00

房地產 (XLRE)

+3.6%×1.00

非必需消費品 (XLY)

+0.5%×1.00

通訊 (XLC)

-2.0%×0.90

科技 (XLK)

-7.9%×0.90

能源 (XLE)

-8.7%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalDefensive rotation — Staples·Utilities·Healthcare leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 3 · SELL 0 · HOLD 7

SPY

GCS · 1d

BUY

744.78

Entry / SL / TP

744.78 / 774.57 / 733.61

Confidence

85%

77→85

Risk-on macro, leading sectors, above Gaussian. Hold signal.

AAPL

GCS · 1d

HOLD

308.63

Entry / SL / TP

308.63 / 304.00 / 320.98

Confidence

33%

33→33

Sideways market, tech weak, holding tech

NVDA

GCS · 1d

HOLD

194.83

Entry / SL / TP

194.83 / 198.73 / 185.09

Confidence

40%

40→40

Mixed signals, technical HOLD, weak sector

TSM

GCS · 1d

BUY

434.16

Entry / SL / TP

434.16 / 427.65 / 451.53

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, GCS strategy bullish, leading sectors.

MELI

GCS · 1d

HOLD

1,763.36

Entry / SL / TP

1,763.36 / 1,728.09 / 1,851.53

Confidence

55%

50→55

Tech HOLD, macro RISK-ON. Market sideways. Gaussian above, rising RSI.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

309,500

Entry / SL / TP

309,500 / 360,612 / 232,832

Confidence

44%

40→44

Mixed signals, Bearish KR market, HOLD strategy.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

BUY

62,541

Entry / SL / TP

62,541 / 65,668 / 61,603

Confidence

94%

85→94

Bullish macro, sideways market, GCS BUY signal.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

HOLD

1,756.30

Entry / SL / TP

1,756.30 / 1,782.64 / 1,668.49

Confidence

36%

33→36

Sideways market, tech HOLD signal, SL/TP set.

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

1.1311

Entry / SL / TP

1.1311 / 1.1537 / 1.0745

Confidence

38%

35→38

Mixed signals, TA indicates HOLD. Risk-on macro.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

82.3400

Entry / SL / TP

82.3400 / 75.7528 / 95.5144

Confidence

50%

45→50

Hold due to sideways market & downward VWAP trend

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP07/03 22:08HOLD162.59

ASML07/03 22:08SELL1,769.32

PBR07/03 22:08HOLD16.1100

VALE07/03 22:08BUY14.9900

SHIB-USD07/03 22:07HOLD0.000004

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →