Daily Briefing · July 01, 2026 · Post-US Market [JP]

ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

July 01, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +30

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

買いシグナル: SPY (77%), TSM (82%)。売りシグナル: SOL-USD (97%)。RISK-ON マクロ、BULLISH 市場フェーズ、リードセクターがBUYをサポート。強気のマクロ/市場、AI_VWAPは強気、リードセクター。全体のマクロ: RISK-ON (+30 スコア)。

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +30RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

0.1

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.30

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.57

Normal+5

CPI YoY

4.3

High Inflation-15

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

15 · Extreme Fear

Contrarian Buy+10

DXY

101.2

Neutral0

Unemployment

4.3

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-15 · FG+10 · Unemp+5 = +30

RISK-ON

リスク選好度が高まる — 成長資産が好まれる

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-06-30

7,499.36

BULL

+0.8% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,443)

ADX21 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-06-30

58,547.80

BEAR

-6.5% vs MA20 · Strong BEAR

MA20Below (62,649)

ADX37 — Strong

TrendStrong BEAR

VIX · data 2026-06-30

16.45

Normal

-6.8% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Healthcare leading

ヘルスケア (XLV)

+7.8%×1.05

産業 (XLI)

+7.7%×1.05

公益事業 (XLU)

+5.9%×1.05

金融 (XLF)

+4.6%×1.00

テクノロジー (XLK)

-2.6%×1.00

一般消費財 (XLY)

-0.6%×1.00

不動産 (XLRE)

+2.6%×1.00

生活必需品 (XLP)

+2.0%×1.00

素材 (XLB)

+0.2%×0.90

エネルギー (XLE)

-6.6%×0.90

通信 (XLC)

-7.1%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalEconomic expansion — Tech·Consumer·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 2 · SELL 1 · HOLD 7

SPY

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

746.77

Entry / SL / TP

746.77 / 726.04 / 788.24

Confidence

77%

70→77

RISK-ON macro, BULLISH market phase, leading sectors support BUY

AAPL

MA_ALIGN · 1d

HOLD

289.36

Entry / SL / TP

289.36 / 288.88 / 289.60

Confidence

50%

45→50

MA alignment incomplete, awaiting clearer signal.

NVDA

MA_ALIGN · 1d

HOLD

200.09

Entry / SL / TP

200.09 / 190.79 / 204.74

Confidence

50%

45→50

MA alignment incomplete. Awaiting clearer signal.

TSM

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

477.57

Entry / SL / TP

477.57 / 439.36 / 553.98

Confidence

82%

75→82

Bullish macro/market, AI_VWAP bullish, leading sectors

MELI

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

1,697.39

Entry / SL / TP

1,697.39 / 1,570.95 / 1,950.26

Confidence

41%

37→41

Mixed signals: RISK-ON, but AI_VWAP is down.

005930.KS

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

HOLD

334,000

Entry / SL / TP

334,000 / 382,876 / 260,687

Confidence

55%

50→55

EMA200 upper, KR market BEAR, Tech HOLD -> cash; uncertainty.

BTC-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

58,651

Entry / SL / TP

58,651 / 54,331 / 67,290

Confidence

48%

44→48

Bear market, technical HOLD signal, RSI oversold.

ETH-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

HOLD

1,571.16

Entry / SL / TP

1,571.16 / 1,445.49 / 1,822.58

Confidence

50%

45→50

Technical HOLD. ML VWAP down, RSI low. Macro RISK-ON.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

1.0410

Entry / SL / TP

1.0410 / 0.957720 / 1.2076

Confidence

33%

30→33

Strategy HOLD, conflicting market phase signals

SOL-USD

BEAR_DEFENSE · 1d

SELL

73.4900

Entry / SL / TP

73.4900 / 81.2766 / 61.8101

Confidence

97%

88→97

Bearish TA signal in a crypto bear market. RISK-ON macro provides buffer.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP06/30 22:11HOLD154.11

ASML06/30 22:11HOLD1,989.44

PBR06/30 22:11HOLD16.1600

VALE06/30 22:11HOLD15.0400

SHIB-USD06/30 22:11HOLD0.000004

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →