Daily Briefing · August 21, 2026 · US Market Open

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

August 21, 2026

US Market Open · 23:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +40

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Buy signals: SPY (85%), TSM (85%), MELI (85%). RISK-ON macro, sideways market, leading sectors, technical BUY signal. RISK-ON macro, leading sectors, bullish TA signals. Overall macro: RISK-ON (score +40).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +40RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

-0.03

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.50

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.82

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.5

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

72 · Greed

Balanced0

DXY

98.8

Weak Dollar+10

Unemployment

4.1

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · DXY+10 · Unemp+5 = +40

RISK-ON

Risk appetite elevated — growth assets favored

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-08-21

7,666.53

BULL

+0.3% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,644)

ADX19 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-08-21

77,070.47

BULL

+18.0% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (65,307)

ADX22 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

VIX · data 2026-08-21

15.42

Normal

-3.7% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Energy leading

Energy (XLE)

+7.1%×1.05

Healthcare (XLV)

+6.9%×1.05

Materials (XLB)

+4.2%×1.05

Communication (XLC)

+4.5%×1.00

Financials (XLF)

+2.3%×1.00

Consumer Disc. (XLY)

+7.2%×1.00

Technology (XLK)

+4.1%×1.00

Real Estate (XLRE)

-1.6%×1.00

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+1.6%×0.90

Utilities (XLU)

-5.8%×0.90

Industrials (XLI)

-1.2%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalRecovery — Financials·Energy·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 6 · SELL 0 · HOLD 4

SPY

GCS · 1d

BUY

764.84

Entry / SL / TP

764.84 / 753.37 / 795.43

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, sideways market, leading sectors, technical BUY signal.

AAPL

GCS · 1d

HOLD

307.43

Entry / SL / TP

307.43 / 312.05 / 295.14

Confidence

55%

50→55

Mixed signals: RISK-ON macro, sideways market, bearish tech.

NVDA

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

216.32

Entry / SL / TP

216.32 / 203.99 / 240.97

Confidence

55%

50→55

ML VWAP trend positive, HOLD signal, RISK-ON macro.

TSM

GCS · 1d

BUY

419.37

Entry / SL / TP

419.37 / 436.14 / 413.08

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, leading sectors, bullish TA signals.

MELI

GCS · 1d

BUY

1,946.77

Entry / SL / TP

1,946.77 / 1,907.83 / 2,044.11

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, bullish TA, positive market phase

005930.KS

GCS · 1d

BUY

281,500

Entry / SL / TP

281,500 / 292,760 / 277,278

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, bullish signals, positive market phase

BTC-USD

MTF_ORDERFLOW · 15m

HOLD

77,086

Entry / SL / TP

77,086 / 73,232 / 84,795

Confidence

55%

50→55

Strategy HOLD signal, unmet technical conditions.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

HOLD

2,383.09

Entry / SL / TP

2,383.09 / 2,347.34 / 2,502.24

Confidence

55%

50→55

Positive macro/market, but technical HOLD signal.

XRP-USD

AI_VWAP · 1h

BUY

1.4127

Entry / SL / TP

1.4127 / 1.2997 / 1.6387

Confidence

100%

95→100

RISK-ON macro, bullish crypto, strong buy signal

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

BUY

90.9400

Entry / SL / TP

90.9400 / 85.3458 / 102.13

Confidence

73%

66→73

RISK-ON macro, BULL crypto market, positive signals.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP08/21 14:08BUY217.97

ASML08/21 14:08BUY1,747.07

PBR08/21 14:08BUY19.1300

VALE08/21 14:08HOLD14.5550

SHIB-USD08/21 14:08BUY0.000005

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →