Daily Briefing · August 17, 2026 · Post-US Market [zh-TW]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

August 17, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +35

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

買入訊號：SPY (85%)、AAPL (84%)、NVDA (91%)。RISK-ON 宏觀、BULLISH 市場、強勢類股。看漲的宏觀/市場、領先的科技類股、VWAP 上升趨勢。整體宏觀：RISK-ON (分數 +35)。

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +35RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

-0.03

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.51

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.82

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.5

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

34 · Fear

Balanced0

DXY

99.7

Weak Dollar+10

Unemployment

—

No data0

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · DXY+10 = +35

RISK-ON

風險偏好升高 — 看好成長型資產

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-08-14

7,785.76

BULL

+2.6% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,585)

ADX23 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-08-16

62,823.17

BEAR

-1.5% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (63,783)

ADX14 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

VIX · data 2026-08-14

14.25

Low

-2.6% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Technology leading

科技 (XLK)

+8.2%×1.05

能源 (XLE)

+7.3%×1.05

材料 (XLB)

+4.0%×1.05

工業 (XLI)

+4.0%×1.00

醫療保健 (XLV)

+3.9%×1.00

非必需消費品 (XLY)

+2.4%×1.00

必需消費品 (XLP)

+1.1%×1.00

通訊 (XLC)

+0.3%×1.00

金融 (XLF)

+3.4%×0.90

房地產 (XLRE)

-0.4%×0.90

公用事業 (XLU)

-1.9%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalEconomic expansion — Tech·Consumer·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 5 · SELL 0 · HOLD 5

SPY

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

776.34

Entry / SL / TP

776.34 / 761.17 / 806.68

Confidence

85%

77→85

RISK-ON macro, BULLISH market, strong sectors.

AAPL

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

305.93

Entry / SL / TP

305.93 / 290.25 / 337.29

Confidence

84%

73→84

Bullish macro/market, leading tech sector, VWAP uptrend.

NVDA

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

225.16

Entry / SL / TP

225.16 / 211.31 / 252.86

Confidence

91%

79→91

Bullish macro/market, tech leading, VWAP uptrend.

TSM

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

426.35

Entry / SL / TP

426.35 / 397.64 / 483.77

Confidence

77%

70→77

Bullish macro/market, leading tech sector, VWAP uptrend.

MELI

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

1,844.58

Entry / SL / TP

1,844.58 / 1,716.30 / 2,101.15

Confidence

77%

70→77

Bullish macro/market, leading sectors, upward VWAP

005930.KS

GCS · 1d

HOLD

274,500

Entry / SL / TP

274,500 / 285,480 / 270,382

Confidence

53%

48→53

Mixed signals. Technical HOLD, strong sectors, RISK-ON macro.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

62,820

Entry / SL / TP

62,820 / 59,679 / 63,762

Confidence

55%

50→55

Technical HOLD, capped confidence, mixed market signals.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

HOLD

1,873.08

Entry / SL / TP

1,873.08 / 1,844.98 / 1,966.73

Confidence

55%

50→55

HOLD signal and sideways market phase override bullish macro.

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

0.994800

Entry / SL / TP

0.994800 / 1.0147 / 0.945060

Confidence

50%

45→50

HOLD. Mixed signals. Tech bearish, macro bullish. Risk-reward favorable.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

74.3600

Entry / SL / TP

74.3600 / 70.5535 / 81.9731

Confidence

50%

45→50

ML VWAP downtrend, RSI < 50. Risk-on macro.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP08/16 22:06HOLD207.97

ASML08/16 22:06HOLD1,844.08

PBR08/16 22:06HOLD17.8800

VALE08/16 22:06HOLD13.6300

SHIB-USD08/16 22:06HOLD0.000004

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →