Daily Briefing · August 15, 2026 · Post-US Market [AR]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

August 15, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +40

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

إشارات شراء: SPY (77%), AAPL (81%), TSM (77%). اقتصاد تجاه المخاطرة (RISK-ON)، سوق صاعد (BULLISH)، قطاعات قوية، اتجاه صاعد لمؤشر متوسط حجم التداول المرجح (VWAP). اقتصاد/سوق صاعد، قطاع تكنولوجيا رائد، ارتفاع مؤشر متوسط حجم التداول المرجح للذكاء الاصطناعي (AI_VWAP). الاقتصاد العام: تجاه المخاطرة (RISK-ON) (النتيجة +40).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +40RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

-0.03

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.51

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.82

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.5

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

29 · Fear

Balanced0

DXY

99.6

Weak Dollar+10

Unemployment

4.1

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · DXY+10 · Unemp+5 = +40

RISK-ON

شهية المخاطرة مرتفعة — الأصول ذات النمو مفضلة

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-08-14

7,785.76

BULL

+2.6% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,585)

ADX23 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-08-14

62,866.89

BEAR

-1.7% vs MA20 · Weak BEAR

MA20Below (63,938)

ADX12 — Weak

TrendWeak BEAR

VIX · data 2026-08-14

14.25

Low

-2.6% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Technology leading

التكنولوجيا (XLK)

+8.2%×1.05

الطاقة (XLE)

+7.3%×1.05

المواد (XLB)

+4.0%×1.05

الصناعات (XLI)

+4.0%×1.00

الرعاية الصحية (XLV)

+3.9%×1.00

السلع الاستهلاكية الكمالية (XLY)

+2.4%×1.00

السلع الاستهلاكية الأساسية (XLP)

+1.1%×1.00

الاتصالات (XLC)

+0.3%×1.00

المالية (XLF)

+3.4%×0.90

العقارات (XLRE)

-0.4%×0.90

المرافق (XLU)

-1.9%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalEconomic expansion — Tech·Consumer·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 4 · SELL 0 · HOLD 6

SPY

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

776.34

Entry / SL / TP

776.34 / 761.17 / 806.68

Confidence

77%

70→77

RISK-ON macro, BULLISH market, strong sectors, VWAP uptrend.

AAPL

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

305.93

Entry / SL / TP

305.93 / 290.25 / 337.29

Confidence

81%

70→81

Bullish macro/market, leading tech sector, AI_VWAP up.

NVDA

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

225.16

Entry / SL / TP

225.16 / 211.31 / 252.86

Confidence

58%

50→58

Bullish macro/market, but HOLD signal limits confidence.

TSM

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

426.35

Entry / SL / TP

426.35 / 397.64 / 483.77

Confidence

77%

70→77

Bullish macro/market. AI_VWAP positive. Leading sectors.

MELI

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

1,844.58

Entry / SL / TP

1,844.58 / 1,716.30 / 2,101.15

Confidence

77%

70→77

Bullish macro, leading sectors, upward trend

005930.KS

GCS · 1d

HOLD

274,500

Entry / SL / TP

274,500 / 285,480 / 270,382

Confidence

50%

45→50

Macro RISK-ON, sideways market. Tech leads. HOLDing per TA.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

62,878

Entry / SL / TP

62,878 / 59,734 / 63,821

Confidence

50%

45→50

Strategy HOLD, RSI weak, below Gaussian centerline

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

HOLD

1,878.73

Entry / SL / TP

1,878.73 / 1,850.55 / 1,972.67

Confidence

55%

50→55

Technical HOLD signal; macro/market mixed.

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

0.997200

Entry / SL / TP

0.997200 / 1.0171 / 0.947340

Confidence

50%

45→50

Weak technicals, sideways market phase, HOLD signal.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

75.1900

Entry / SL / TP

75.1900 / 71.1034 / 83.3631

Confidence

55%

50→55

Sideways crypto market, HOLD signal, risk-on macro

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP08/14 22:06HOLD207.97

ASML08/14 22:06HOLD1,844.08

PBR08/14 22:06HOLD17.8800

VALE08/14 22:06HOLD13.6300

SHIB-USD08/14 22:06HOLD0.000005

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →