Daily Briefing · August 12, 2026 · Post-US Market [ID]

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ULTRA QUANT · DAILY BRIEFING

August 12, 2026

Post-US Market · 07:00 KST · 6-Layer AI Analysis

RISK-ON

Overall AI Stance · Score +40

L6UQ AI Engine · Final JudgementLLM Synthesis · L1×L4 adjusted

RISK-ON

Sinyal beli: SPY (77%), NVDA (81%), TSM (86%). Makro RISK-ON, pasar BULL, sektor kuat, sinyal BUY. Makro bullish, pasar pertumbuhan, tren AI_VWAP kuat. Makro keseluruhan: RISK-ON (skor +40).

L1Macro EnvironmentFRED · DXY · Fear&Greed · CPI · FFR · Unemployment

Score +40RISK-ON

Sahm Rule

-0.03

Safe+10

10Y−2Y Spread

0.48

Normal+15

10Y−3M Spread

0.81

Normal+5

CPI YoY

3.7

Elevated-5

Fed Funds Rate

3.63

Neutral0

Fear & Greed

29 · Fear

Balanced0

DXY

99.8

Weak Dollar+10

Unemployment

4.1

Healthy+5

ScoreSahm+10 · Spread+15 · 3M+5 · CPI-5 · DXY+10 · Unemp+5 = +40

RISK-ON

Selera risiko meningkat — aset pertumbuhan disukai

L2Market DirectionS&P500 · BTC · VIX

MIXED

S&P 500 · data 2026-08-11

7,728.20

BULL

+2.4% vs MA20 · Weak BULL

MA20Above (7,547)

ADX21 — Weak

TrendWeak BULL

Bitcoin · data 2026-08-11

63,700.69

SIDEWAYS

-0.7% vs MA20 · Sideways

MA20Below (64,135)

ADX11 — Weak

TrendSideways

VIX · data 2026-08-11

15.28

Normal

-1.2% 1d · Volatility Index

Low< 15

Normal15 – 25

High / Extreme> 25 / > 35

L4Sector StrengthUS 11 Sectors · ETF momentum

Energy leading

Energi (XLE)

+7.0%×1.05

Perawatan Kesehatan (XLV)

+6.1%×1.05

Material (XLB)

+5.1%×1.05

Industri (XLI)

+2.9%×1.00

Konsumen Diskresioner (XLY)

+2.9%×1.00

Teknologi (XLK)

+1.4%×1.00

Komunikasi (XLC)

-0.2%×1.00

Keuangan (XLF)

+2.9%×1.00

Konsumen Primer (XLP)

+1.5%×0.90

Real Estat (XLRE)

-0.9%×0.90

Utilitas (XLU)

-4.5%×0.90

L4 Rotation SignalEconomic expansion — Tech·Consumer·Industrials leading

L5Strategy SignalsAI-optimized per ticker· GCS · MA_ALIGN · AI_VWAP · MTF

BUY 5 · SELL 0 · HOLD 5

SPY

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

770.56

Entry / SL / TP

770.56 / 754.04 / 803.59

Confidence

77%

70→77

RISK-ON macro, BULL market, strong sectors, BUY signal.

AAPL

AI_VWAP · 1d

HOLD

304.91

Entry / SL / TP

304.91 / 287.33 / 340.07

Confidence

55%

50→55

Bullish macro/market, but neutral sector & HOLD signal.

NVDA

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

217.50

Entry / SL / TP

217.50 / 202.50 / 247.50

Confidence

81%

74→81

Bullish macro, growth market, strong AI_VWAP trend.

TSM

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

422.06

Entry / SL / TP

422.06 / 390.33 / 485.51

Confidence

86%

78→86

RISK-ON macro, BULL market, positive AI_VWAP

MELI

AI_VWAP · 1d

BUY

1,940.00

Entry / SL / TP

1,940.00 / 1,812.70 / 2,194.59

Confidence

88%

80→88

Bullish macro/market, strong AI_VWAP uptrend.

005930.KS

GCS · 1d

HOLD

239,500

Entry / SL / TP

239,500 / 243,092 / 229,920

Confidence

55%

50→55

HOLD due to sideways market and technical signal.

BTC-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

63,679

Entry / SL / TP

63,679 / 60,495 / 64,634

Confidence

55%

50→55

Technical HOLD signal, mixed market phase.

ETH-USD

GCS · 1h

BUY

1,882.11

Entry / SL / TP

1,882.11 / 1,853.88 / 1,976.22

Confidence

77%

70→77

GCS strategy aligned with RISK-ON macro & SIDEWAYS market.

XRP-USD

GCS · 4h

HOLD

1.0217

Entry / SL / TP

1.0217 / 1.0421 / 0.970615

Confidence

50%

45→50

GCS signal is HOLD. RSI low, below Gaussian. Mixed macro.

SOL-USD

AI_VWAP · 4h

HOLD

76.4800

Entry / SL / TP

76.4800 / 72.1637 / 85.1127

Confidence

50%

45→50

Macro RISK-ON, but crypto sideways. Tech signals HOLD.

SIGNAL HISTORY — Recent 5

SAP08/11 22:06HOLD209.68

ASML08/11 22:06HOLD1,799.38

PBR08/11 22:06HOLD17.9300

VALE08/11 22:06HOLD14.3200

SHIB-USD08/11 22:06HOLD0.000004

Strategy Performance — Coming Soon

Market Analysis

L1 · L2 · L4 deep dive →

Stock Analysis

All signals · 50+ tickers →